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How is this worked out?
We take the forecasts each model made one day ahead and compare them, hour by hour, with what the nearest suitable weather station actually measured: temperature, wind speed and daily precipitation. For each of these we work out every model’s average error, then compare it with the average of all the models. The model with the lowest combined score ranks first. The station is picked for being close and at a similar height to your point, and the forecasts are worked out for the height of the station, so it is a fair test.
Models and what’s shown
Changes are saved automaticallyAýrybaba snow forecast and mountain weather
Aýrybaba rises to 3,139 m in Uzbekistan, in the Köýtendag Range, with a prominence of 1,639 m. The forecast below starts at the summit; lower the height to see the slopes and valleys, or compare every model.
Aýrybaba snow forecast, day by day
| Day | Summit3,139 m | 500 m lower2,640 m | 1,000 m lower2,140 m | Freezing level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | – | – | – | |
| Sun 25 Oct | – | – | – | |
| Mon 26 Oct | – | – | – | |
| Tue 27 Oct | 4 cm | 3 cm | – | |
| Wed 28 Oct | 1 cm | 1 cm | – | |
| Thu 29 Oct | – | – | – | |
| Fri 30 Oct | – | – | – | |
| Total | 4 cm | 3 cm | – |
Forecast snowfall worked out for each height from ECMWF (days in UTC, updated 7 hours ago). Not a measured snow depth. The forecast above has the hour-by-hour detail, wind and temperature, and every other model.
More: Mountains in Uzbekistan · Mountains in Asia · The world’s highest mountains · Ski resorts
Questions about Aýrybaba
- Will it snow on Aýrybaba this week?
- Yes. About 4.2 cm of snow is forecast at the summit of Aýrybaba (3,139 m) over the next 7 days, most of it on Tuesday.
- How high is Aýrybaba?
- Aýrybaba is 3,139 m (10,299 ft) high, in Uzbekistan.
- How prominent is Aýrybaba?
- Aýrybaba has a topographic prominence of 1,639 m (5,377 ft): it rises that far above the lowest col linking it to any higher ground.
- Which mountain range is Aýrybaba in?
- Aýrybaba is in the Köýtendag Range.
Mountain heights and names: Wikidata (CC0).